Articles by "Covid 19"
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di May 02, 2020 0

Why Estimated COVID-19 Death in the US is Critical

The CDC responds to the 2019 coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) caused by a new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, which spreads from person to person. The federal government works closely with state, tribal, local and territorial health departments, and other public health partners, to respond to this situation. Death estimates will help inform public health decision-making by projecting impacts that might occur in the coming weeks.

What Predictions Predict forecasts

Forecast based on the use of statistical or mathematical models (hereinafter referred to as "models") aims to predict cumulative changes at the national and state levels that report COVID-19 deaths over the next four weeks. The forecasting team estimates the number of deaths using various types of data (e.g., COVID-19 data, demographic data, mobility data), methods (see below), and estimated impact of interventions (eg social distance, use of face covering).

National Forecast



  • This forecast shows the cumulative reporting of COVID-19 deaths since February and estimated deaths over the next four weeks in the United States.
  • The CU model makes various assumptions about the effectiveness of current interventions. All other models assume that existing social distance measures will continue for the indicated time period.


Forecast Interpretation


  • National-level forecasts indicate that mortality is likely to continue to increase in the coming weeks. How fast they will increase is still very uncertain.
  • Models that include strong contact reductions (eg, IHME, MOBS) suggest that new deaths will continue to occur, but slow down substantially over the next four weeks. In contrast, models that do not include strong contact reductions (eg CU 20%, CU 30%) suggest that total deaths can continue to increase rapidly.
  • Country-level estimates vary widely, reflecting differences in the initial epidemic phase, timing of interventions, and model-specific assumptions (eg regarding the effectiveness of interventions applied).


Country Forecast

Country-level estimates show COVID-19 cumulative deaths observed and estimated state levels in the US.

Forecasts fall into one of three categories

  • The LANL model does not explicitly model the effects of individual distance social measures but assumes that implemented interventions will continue to be enforced in the future which results in decreased growth.
  • The IHME, UT Austin, University of Geneva, YYG, and MOBS_NEU models depend on existing social distance measures that continue throughout the projection period.
  • The CU model makes different assumptions about the effectiveness of current social distance interventions.


Download the estimated PDF

Download the data excel

Work to Unite Forecasts for COVID-19 Death in the US

CDC works with partners to put together weekly forecasts for COVID-19 deaths in one place. This forecast has been independently developed and shared publicly. It is important to bring together these forecasts to help understand how they compare with each other and how much uncertainty about what might happen in the next four weeks.

Columbia University

Model name: 20% CU contact reduction, 30% CU contact reduction, 40% CU contact reduction

Assumption of intervention
These models are based on the assumption of reducing the number of contacts per case. Three different contact reduction adaptation scenarios are projected: contact reduction of 20%, 30%, and 40% in US countries with at least 10 cases. Additional reductions are implemented with the addition of new cases, and all social distance interventions remain until the end of the projection.

Method
SEAP metapopulation model

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di May 02, 2020 0

Coronavirus Treatment (COVID-19)


Corona virus or severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a virus that attacks the respiratory system. This disease caused by a viral infection is called COVID-19. Corona virus can cause mild disturbances to the respiratory system, severe lung infections, to death.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), better known as the Corona virus, is a new type of coronavirus that is transmitted to humans. Although more attacking the elderly, this virus can actually affect anyone, ranging from infants, children, to adults, including pregnant women and nursing mothers.

Corona virus infection is called COVID-19 (Corona Virus Disease 2019) and was first discovered in the city of Wuhan, China at the end of December 2019. This virus is transmitted very quickly and has spread to almost all countries, including Indonesia, in just a few months.

This makes some countries implement policies to impose lockdowns in order to prevent the spread of Corona virus. In Indonesia itself, a Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBB) policy was put in place to suppress the spread of this virus.

Coronavirus is a collection of viruses that can infect the respiratory system. In many cases, this virus only causes mild respiratory infections, such as flu. However, this virus can also cause severe respiratory infections, such as lung infections (pneumonia).

In addition to the SARS-CoV-2 virus or Corona virus, viruses that are also included in this group are the viruses that cause Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and the virus that causes Middle-East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS). Although caused by viruses from the same group, namely coronaviruses, COVID-19 has some differences with SARS and MERS, among others in terms of the speed of spread and severity of symptoms.

Corona Virus Treatment (COVID-19)

Corona virus infection or COVID-19 can not be treated, but there are some steps that doctors can take to reduce symptoms and prevent the spread of the virus, namely:

  1. Referring patients with severe COVID-19 to undergo treatment and caratina in a referral hospital
  2. Provide fever and pain relievers that are safe and in accordance with the patient's condition
  3. Encourage sufferers of COVID-19 to do independent isolation and adequate rest
  4. Encourage sufferers of COVID-19 to drink lots of water to maintain body fluid levels

Complications of Corona Virus (COVID-19)

In severe cases, Corona virus infection can cause the following complications:

  • Pneumonia (lung infection)
  • Secondary infection of other organs
  • Kidney failure
  • Acute cardiac injury
  • Acute respiratory distress syndrome
  • Dead

Corona Virus Prevention (COVID-19)

Until now, there is no vaccine to prevent Corona virus infection or COVID-19. Therefore, the best prevention method is to avoid the factors that can cause you to be infected with this virus, namely:

  • Apply physical distancing, which is to maintain a minimum distance of 1 meter from other people, and not to go outside the house unless there is an urgent need.
  • Use a mask when on the move in public places or crowds, including when you go shopping for groceries.
  • Routinely wash your hands with water and soap or hand sanitizer containing at least 60% alcohol, especially after doing activities outside the home or in public places.
  • Do not touch the eyes, mouth and nose before washing hands.
  • Increase endurance with a healthy lifestyle.
  • Avoid contact with people with COVID-19, people who are suspected of being positively infected by the Corona virus, or people who are sick with a fever, cough, or runny nose.
  • Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue when you cough or sneeze, then throw the tissue in the trash.
  • Keep clean objects that are often touched and environmental cleanliness, including cleaning the house.


For people suspected of being affected by COVID-19 or included in the ODP (monitored person) or PDP (patient under surveillance) category, there are steps that can be taken so that the Corona virus is not transmitted to others, namely:

  • Do independent isolation by staying apart from others for a while. If it is not possible, use a bedroom and bathroom that is different from what others use.
  • Do not leave the house, except for treatment.
  • If you want to go to the hospital when the symptoms get worse, you should first contact the hospital to pick up.
  • Prohibit and prevent others from visiting or visiting you until you are completely healed.
  • As much as possible do not have meetings with people who are sick.
  • Avoid sharing the use of cutlery and drinking equipment, toiletries, and sleeping equipment with others.
  • Wear a mask and gloves when in a public place or with someone else.
  • Use tissue to cover your mouth and nose when coughing or sneezing, then immediately throw the tissue in the trash.
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di March 12, 2020 0

New York’s Crypto Firms Will Provide Plans To Deal Covid 19 Outbreak


Matthew Homer of the New York State Department of Financial Services asked firms related to virtual currency to establish proper contingency plans for Covid 19.  In the letter, all the major things have been included that are must for preparations. There should be proper protection strategies for the employees. Accurate functioning should be there to reduce cyber risk. The plans need to be submitted within the next 30 days by all the firms.

Covid 19 outbreak could lead to cyber attacks


It has been highlighted in the letter that hackers might try to launch some cyber-attacks due to the outbreak. All the firms are directed to take ample security measures in order to prevent such attacks. There is a need to keep an eye on “illicit deals” and all the “withdrawals”.

Effective Communication plan


The regulator has said that firms need to develop proper communication plans. A forum needs to be established to communicate with the public including the customers and the counterparties.  All the important or urgent news and information should  be conveyed through this communication plan.

How firms might be affected by Covid 19


It has also been mentioned by the regulator that how the outbreak could affect the organisations.  There might be a decline in revenues, changes in the interest rate, decreased value of different investments and assets and a lot more. There is a need for an accurate plan to evaluate and observe the complete financial risk that might be there due to COVID-19.

By the time the letter was issued, there were already many circumstances that were leading towards emergency in New York.  Andrew Cuomo, the governor of New York has imposed restrictions on mass gatherings throughout the city. Simultaneously, a state of emergency has been declared by the mayor of the city, Bill de Blasio. In recent press conferences, he has also warned that the outbreak is not for a short period of time as it might be easily a crisis for six months or even more than that.
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