Bullish or bearish? See what the experts have to say about the future of Bitcoin in 2021!
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When Bitcoin (BTC) hit an all-time high of $65,000 in April, it felt like $100,000 was the next stop for cryptocurrencies. However, the following months brought a change in market trends and the entire cryptocurrency market experienced a sharp decline.
Bitcoin price is down 50% since April, negatively impacting market sentiment and ushering in a dark cloud of distrust among retail and institutional investors.
However, it seems that the situation is changing, as Bitcoin crossed the $40,000 mark for the first time in a six-week period. Thus, Bitcoin's upside prospects have been renewed and, although opinions vary, many experts still believe that the $100,000 price is still achievable by the end of 2021.
Case for $100,000
Why $100,000? It does have a nice ring to it. Round numbers represent a natural resistance point in the rise in the price of any asset, but there is more to it than that. Some predictive models predict $100,000 to be a viable target for Bitcoin price in December 2021.
One example is the well-known Stock to Flow model created by anonymous analyst PlanB. This model takes into account the deflationary nature of the Bitcoin issuance rate, which is halved every four years. Here, Stock is the number of coins in circulation and the flow of the amount mined each year.
This model has proven to be an accurate predictor of digital asset prices during previous market cycles but in order to remain valid, Bitcoin must hit the $100,000 mark before the year ends.
Bullish Sign Charms On-chain Data for Bitcoin.
There are other indicators for price prediction to consider and some of them are starting to show promise of the upcoming Bullish period. Pedro Febrero, Blockchain Analyst at Quantumeconomics, a company that provides analysis, consulting and money management services for both traditional and digital assets, shares his thoughts on the matter, citing two well-known crypto analysts. He has stated:
“Regarding Bitcoin hitting $100,000, that's a tough question. Whether btc will hit $100k this year or not, we can't know for sure. If we extend the timeframe, say 2-4 years, that's almost certain. However, on-analysts like William Clemente and Willy Woo point to the fact that not only do whales collect btc but they also take their coins from exchanges. Short supply usually means prices are rising.”
The two on-chain metrics mentioned by Febrero, whale accumulation and exchange outflows, have been widely observed and analyzed over the past few weeks as they are known indicators for the upcoming rally for Bitcoin. Cointelegraph recently reported a monthly exchange outflow of around 100,000 Bitcoins from centralized exchanges.
This move suggests that investors are interested in keeping their coins off exchanges and keeping them in safer places, a trend observed by both institutional and retail investors. At the time, only 13.2% of the BTC currently in circulation was held on exchanges, the lowest percentage in 2021.
Market Change.
2020 was a wild year to say the least. However, several factors currently point to perfect conditions for renewed growth in the Bitcoin market as reported in June's Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index. The report reads:
“The halving in 2020 comes amid unprecedented global fiscal and monetary stimulus, along with institutions leaning towards Bitcoin allocation. The chances that crypto becomes a digital reserve asset and stay on the track charted for most of the last decade further outweigh the loss of a fraction of the portfolio. "
Prediction models have evolved tremendously in recent years as new metrics become available, and different variables gain relevance every day, but the reality is that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have gained considerable attention from the mainstream media and users which cemented Bitcoin as a powerful storefront. . In terms of asset value, digital assets are starting to be seen as an almost mandatory investment in various types of investment portfolios. This shift in perception makes it harder to try to come up with accurate predictions as uncharted territory begins to be explored for new digital asset classes.
Is the Price of $100,000 BTC Even Possible?
As previously mentioned by Pedro Febrero, a value of $100,000 could be reached, if not in December, then maybe in the next 2/3 years. While this would be an ambitious leap for the remaining four months of the year, we've seen it happen before. Over a span of just seven months (between September 2020 and April 2021) the price of Bitcoin increased by around 600%, so it is possible that we will see a similar spike in the coming months.
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